Now then, just seen an interesting thing on the Canberra Marathon news letter that's just been sent through to me. They put on pacer runner... i..e people who run with a flag in their back for a certain time, thus enabling people to get that time. Interesting concept and certainly a great idea. However which one do I 'align' myself with? Based on the training I've done to date, and my longest run time, which is roughly 21.5 miles in 3 hours... it suggests I'm around the 3hr 45 mins mark.
Now, I've always said that first and foremost, the goal is to break 4 hours... but without wanting to tempt fate, I think a 3hr 45mins marathon is very achievable for me, so am thinking I should park myself just behind this pacer, and run with them. However, part of me wants to get into the 3hr 30mins if possible, this is my stretch goal, so I'm wondering should I park myself behind this one instead? The only problem is that a 3hr 30min marathon might be pushing myself a little bit too hard, and whilst I reckon I could keep that going for 15-20 miles, I think I might 'die' a little towards the end. Saying that though, it's 8 minute miles for a 3h 30min marathon? Achievable? Yep... certainly in the long run, but not so sure about now. Anyways, I think I'll wait to see how the 23 mile training run goes tomorrow, and then I'll know more about where I'm at. Although not sure this will be a fair reflection given that I'm only just over illness too, and my route is very hilly... and Canberra is very flat. Anyway, loads of factors to consider, but let's see how we go this weekend, and then on one or two other 20+ milers before I make the final decision... however it's oh so tempting to park myself behind the 3hr 30mins guy, because even if I fall behind him, I'm likely to break 3hr 40mins, which would be beyond my expectations at the moment! Hmmmmmm decisions decisions...
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2 comments:
Dan, have a look at this ...
http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/Running%20University/Article%201/mcmillanrunningcalculator.htm
... it will help you work out your pace and set a target. If you have run a half then double it and add 10 minutes.
My suggestion is you hang out with me for awhile at 3:30 pace, if you find the going tough early then ease off a little and let the group go. Doing this you will still be right to have a good run.
And if you are still good half way you are a real chance of making it. It should be hard at the end which makes it extremely rewarding crossing the line.
Agree with the other comment. It looks like you are dividing 180 by 21.5 and times the result by 26.2 which will give you a time of 3.40. I guess you are then adding five mins for assumed decline of pace over the addition miles. If you are working it out this way then dont - in practice it doesnt work like that!
1) When you are well rested with a good taper you will feel loads fresher than ever before.
2) With the adrenaline pumping you will be able to run harder. Generally 7-10% is deemed the norm. This was bang on for me even though I never did my long runs anywhere near as fast as I did in the race (I ran 30 secs a mile quicker than my longest run which was only 21 miles!).
3) Your route sounds hilly.
Obviously I cant see the effort you are putting in but everything suggests that your time is around 3.25 pace. I would suggest 3.30 pace is within your capability as long as you run an intelligent race and the conditions allow for it.
You've got to go for what you think it best, so perhaps dont listen to me - but just thought it'd be useful to give you an outside perspective. You also need to decide what your objectives are - is it just to complete, complete with an ok time, or run to the best of your ability allows?
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